Author Topic: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition  (Read 1741 times)

Offline Cytherea

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2012, 04:19:15 PM »
Do you... do you think speaking their names is what summons them into this world?

SPEAK OF THE DEVIL AND HE SHALL APPEAR.

And I haven't baked cookies in a couple months; it probably wouldn't end well if no one has any cookies to offer.

Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #21 on: January 22, 2012, 12:02:16 PM »
And now it's become interesting.  With the winnter take all nature of South Carolina, we've got ourselves a horse race.  At least up till Super Tuesday.

Gingrich    243,153  40%  23
Romney    167,279  28%    0   
Santorum  102,055  17%   0
Paul           77,993  13%   0

I figured Newt would get a bump from several avenues, with Perry's backing him and the general waffling over Mitt, and I had a feeling that with South Carolina being a bit more conservative combined with the closeness to Newt's Georgia, but it still surprised me he took it by so much.  Santorum's probably DOA now and Paul's gonna probably be around as a yapping dog before he just resigns himself to the Libertarian Party's nomination again, which makes this essentially '08 all over again, but only if Newt builds on this.

Florida is January 31st.

To the Big Board:
Romney      31
Gingrich      26
Paul           10
Santorum     8
Huntsman 0
Bachmann    0
Perry           0



Yes, I'm crazy. Deal with it.
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Offline catfishncod

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #22 on: January 22, 2012, 04:45:14 PM »
Do you... do you think speaking their names is what summons them into this world? search engine results.
FTFY.
SPEAK OF THE DEVIL AND HE SHALL APPEAR.
It's been over a week since I last mentioned how awesome you guys are.

Well, the Bomb blew the competition away, and (told ya) the Choir Boy gets his credit. Not that this will do him any good; his only hope was to assemble the Holy Smoke Evangelical Choir under his direction and wave his baton at all the other candidates. (Yes, I did that deliberately.) It will take a couple more rounds to push his numbers down enough to give up the ghost. He says he's staying because "the longer the race lasts, the better it is for conservatives." Because we all know just how much the Nut and the Bot are candy-ass liberals, right?

The Bot seems to have completed an overnight diagnostic cycle, and rebooted this morning to announce that he's perfectly capable and willing to release his 2010 tax returns, thank you very much, and an estimate of his 2011 taxes. I think I see the problem here; the Bot locked up because he doesn't have the processor speed and memory installed to calculate just how rich he is, how little he pays in taxes, and how little he works to earn any of that money. He doesn't really have a clue what's in all that paperwork; he just knows that minions tell him it won't be ready 'till April, and since that's good enough for the annoying bureaucrats at the IRS that he'd like to fire, shouldn't it be good enough for everyone else?

I think it took the Bot this long just to assimilate that people care that he's rich. Because, as Charlie Pierce keeps saying, F the Debt. People Got No Jobs. People Got No Money.

Now, here's the big question. South Carolina was tailor-made for the Bomb. Florida, not so much. 99.9% of Republicans in SC are white and are happy to vote for the man with the dog whistle. In Florida you have people of different hues. Also too? They're from all over the place. Can the Bomb keep the momentum going? Even with sugar daddies, the Bomb can only hope to at best spend an even amount of cash as the Bot.

Oh, excuse me. The noncoordinating SuperPACs can only hope to match each other. Because they have nothing at all to do with the candidates they work so very hard to air automagically appropriate ads for.
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Offline Tamsin

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2012, 10:24:25 AM »
The nicknames in this thread are what make it both amusing and heartbreaking.
For further information, consult your pineal gland.
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Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #24 on: January 26, 2012, 01:50:10 PM »
While Florida may not be a make or break, it's certainly going to be interesting.  It's another winner-take-all contest, with 50 delegates up for the prize.  The latest RealClearPolitics average has the race looking this way:

Romney   36.7   
Gingrich   33.3   
Santorum 10.8   
Paul         8.5

Which means it's still way too close to give this to either one.  There's a good possibility that Gingirch's latest day in the sun combined with the proximity to his home state of Georgia combined with "Not Mitt" gives him a significant boost.  If he wins then I see this race as Obama/Clinton Mark II and we'll have a shooting match past Super Tuesday.   
Yes, I'm crazy. Deal with it.
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Offline etphonehome

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2012, 08:53:01 AM »
Romney's massive campaign war chest and superior organization gives him a pretty big advantage from here on out. Gingrich isn't even on the ballot in Virginia because he couldn't get enough signatures, for example. I guess if the "not Mitt" coalition gives Newt enough cash to compete in the rest of the states he might have a chance, but I'd wait for Gingrich to win a few more states before considering him a real contender.

A long fight between Gingrich and Romney would play right into Ron Paul's strategy, which is to win enough delegates in non-"winner-take-all" states to have some influence at the convention.
My 2¢.

Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2012, 02:17:58 AM »
And Florida is in.  I wouldn't entirely categorize as a total landslide, but since Florida is winner take all, Mitt gets all the marbles.

Romney   771,842   46%   50
Gingrich   531,294   32%    0
Santorum 222,248   13%    0
Paul        116,776    7%     0

Paul's going down in flames which probably means it's only a few weeks before he jumps and goes for the Libertarian nomination.  Santorum is also going down pretty hard, the "win" in Iowa nearly useless.   We've got Nevada on the 4th, Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri on the 7th.

Here's the big board.

Rommney     84
Gingrich       27
Paul            10
Santorum      8
Perry           0
Huntsman     0
Bachmann     0
Yes, I'm crazy. Deal with it.
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

As soon as you're born, you start dying, so you might as well have a good time. -- Cake, "Sheep Go To Heaven"

Offline Gudy

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #27 on: February 01, 2012, 03:17:13 AM »
Paul's going down in flames which probably means it's only a few weeks before he jumps and goes for the Libertarian nomination.  Santorum is also going down pretty hard, the "win" in Iowa nearly useless.
You know, I wonder how much of that is a real decline in, or lack of, support as opposed to the stupid winner-takes-it-all dynamics at play that are also basically the root cause of the equally stupid two party system you guys have.
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Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #28 on: February 01, 2012, 03:42:46 AM »
I don't know if I'd equate the "Winner Take All" rules of party primaries with the two party system.

If I think you're equating the Electoral College with the primary system, then they're really separate things, though that does make more sense with the point you're trying to make with eroding support for any third party as the last time a third party took a state in the Electoral College was 1968. 

The winner take all in primaries does keep fringe candidates from gaining traction, however.  Paul's delegates have come from the states where they were proportional so far, which kept him in the running so far. 
The problem with third parties in America, I'd say, is more the lack of broad appeal.  Most of the American third parties, whether due to general limited access or just because, are generally parties formed around a specific niche appeal.  The Libertarians come to mind.  There are some that try to be broad such as the New Whig party, but they're so minor right now you couldn't even get 10% of American voters to even know they exist much less tell you what they're about.

I'd think that if we could get a third party that has a lot of people behind it and has a broad appeal, we could see some shakeup.  At the height of its power, if the Tea Party had split off, you could probably argue they'd have had the potential like Wallace's American Independent Party in '68.   Though granted, even then the AIP was a niche party, largely a "paleoconservative" party that gained traction in the south due to its segregationist planks.
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Offline Gudy

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #29 on: February 01, 2012, 05:36:57 AM »
I don't know if I'd equate the "Winner Take All" rules of party primaries with the two party system.
Not equate, no, but I think the same basic dynamics are at play here. As you say yourself,
The winner take all in primaries does keep fringe candidates from gaining traction, however.  Paul's delegates have come from the states where they were proportional so far, which kept him in the running so far.
Yep. The more winner-takes-all states, the less chance Paul, Santorum and their like have to stay in, and the earlier those winner-takes-all states come in such an election race, the more "momentum" seems to favour those who win in those states, by whatever margin. Not, mind you, that I am sad to see Paul and Santorum get kicked out - although I have to admit to a certain curiosity about watching an Obama vs. Santorum race as long as I was sure Santorum couldn't win. :-)
"I have cultural differences with just about everybody nowadays. They watch TV and I don't." -- Allanque
"Ask for 100% of what you want. Be willing to hear 'No.' Negotiate for a win/win." -- Scix
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Offline Bunner_Redux

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #30 on: February 04, 2012, 09:09:23 PM »
Looks like Nevada's smitten with Romney.
I can understand Gingrich sticking in the race for a while yet, but Santorum?
Really? Just, let it go, man, because it's gone.
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Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #31 on: February 05, 2012, 01:54:31 PM »
Sorta final results from Nevada.

Romney  11,822   48%   12   
Gingrich   5,623   23%     4
Paul        4,619   18%     4
Santorum  2,749  11%     2

Nevada's kinda small, so it's mostly people making hash from the fact if we can learn anything from this other than it's still just only Romney/Gingrich.  My theory is that most pundits are waiting for Super Tuesday to make a real decision.
The Big Board:

Romney    97
Gingrich    31
Paul         14
Santorum  10
Perry    0
Huntsman  0
Bachmann  0

Yes, I'm crazy. Deal with it.
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

As soon as you're born, you start dying, so you might as well have a good time. -- Cake, "Sheep Go To Heaven"

Offline Bunner_Redux

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #32 on: February 05, 2012, 03:54:10 PM »
My theory is that most pundits are waiting for Super Tuesday to make a real decision.

...They're waiting for dollar-ninety-nine McBLTs?
Hatter: Have I gone mad?
Alice: I'm afraid so. You're entirely bonkers. But I'll tell you a secret. All the best people are.

Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #33 on: February 07, 2012, 01:47:04 PM »
Sure thing, where the cold stays cold... and the hot stays hot!
Yes, I'm crazy. Deal with it.
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As soon as you're born, you start dying, so you might as well have a good time. -- Cake, "Sheep Go To Heaven"

Offline Bunner_Redux

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #34 on: February 07, 2012, 07:35:33 PM »
Looks like Gingrich has been newtered.
Hatter: Have I gone mad?
Alice: I'm afraid so. You're entirely bonkers. But I'll tell you a secret. All the best people are.

Offline KnightOfNi

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #35 on: February 07, 2012, 08:34:36 PM »
Looks like Gingrich has been newtered.
Ouuuch....
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Offline Gudy

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #36 on: February 08, 2012, 12:24:17 AM »
And Santorum has surged from behind!
"I have cultural differences with just about everybody nowadays. They watch TV and I don't." -- Allanque
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Offline Coyote

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2012, 12:40:02 AM »
Curiouser and curiouser.  Are we seeing a true three-man race or is this just where the second-place people are feeding off of one another so Romney gets a clear Super Tuesday road to St. Pete?  Another thing to note was the oddity of the Missouri "primary", in that it's being reported, it's being tabulated... From what I've read, the RNC was going to nail Missouri to the wall for having a primary this early, taking away half its delegates, so they agreed to the caucus at a later time.  But the problem for the state is that they had already set up a lot of the state elections for that primary itself so they had to go ahead with it, and just make the results nonbinding.
The results:
Colorado:

Santorum    26,372  40%   5
Romney      22,875  35%   4
Gingrich        8,394 13%    2
Paul             7,713  12%   1

Minnesota

Santorum     21,420  45%  6
Paul            13,023  27%  4
Romney         8,090  17%  2
Gingrich         5,128  11%  1

And the Missouri results

Santorum   138,957   55% 
Romney       63,826   25% 
Paul            30,641   12% 
Uncommitted  9,859    4%

Missouri's caucus is going to be funky so I won't put in approximates for delegates.  It's interesting to note that Santroum is gaining ground or at least finding his own strength states to have a base from.  CNN is going crazy with "Santorum's Sweep"  which is cute, it's giving them something to write about.  Gingrich took a 1-2-3 blow in this, with less than 15% for either of the ones he was in and not even counted in the Missouri totals.  Ron Paul is blearily cheering for himself for a second place finish in Minnesota which is either a last gasp or just him going nutters.   Romney took it a bit in the shorts here which is interesting, and I expect to see a few stories on whether he's losing traction or not.  Maine is on the 11th

The Big Board

Romney   106
Gingrich    38
Santorum  22
Paul         20
Perry     0
Huntsman   0
Bachmann   0
Yes, I'm crazy. Deal with it.
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Offline etphonehome

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2012, 09:53:34 AM »
And Santorum has surged from behind!

Please tell me you had the Dan Savage definition in mind when you wrote this.
My 2¢.

Offline Gudy

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Re: 2012 Primary Season: Opposition Edition
« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2012, 10:28:16 AM »
Please tell me you had the Dan Savage definition in mind when you wrote this.
Of course I did. How could I possibly not?!
"I have cultural differences with just about everybody nowadays. They watch TV and I don't." -- Allanque
"Ask for 100% of what you want. Be willing to hear 'No.' Negotiate for a win/win." -- Scix
"Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes." -- Goodhart's Law